Tonight, Mitt Romney claimed his second nomination contest victory, putting him leaps and bounds ahead of the rest of the field. While the actual number of delegates he needs to win is still a long way off, it’s getting harder to see another of the GOP challengers taking the lead away from him. Romney was expected to win in New Hampshire, being more or less his home state, but South Carolina may prove to be a bit more of a contest. In addition, the first of the southern states is a “winner take all” contest, meaning the losing candidates won’t be taking any delegates with them. Were Romney to lose there on January 21st, it would instantly breathe a whole new life into the campaign of the winner.
I don’t think Ron Paul can win in South Carolina. He has his base of support, and is increasingly difficult to ignore, but isn’t going to win any state outright. I don’t see him dropping out after losing in South Carolina, though. He likes to buck the system and wants to make as big of a point as he can about the issues that he’s campaigning about, even if he knows that he isn’t going to win the nomination.
The three candidates all claiming to be the “real” conservative are probably going to split right-wing vote, and keep each other from really digging into Romney’s lead. Santorum, Gingrich and Perry all have what I believe to be fatal flaws which will deny them the nomination, and the longer that they all stay in, the harder it will be for either of the other two to gain any traction. If they do badly, I could easily see any one of them drop out. A poor finish in South Carolina is going to drain the coffers of any candidate, especially one of these three, since donors may start looking to throw their money at the more conservative candidate that has the best chance of catching up to Romney.
That leaves Jon Huntsman, who has only been an afterthought to much of the electorate until recently. His third place finish in New Hampshire (behind Romney and Ron Paul at number 2) didn’t exactly startle anyone, but it was higher than the expectations of a few days ago. The problem is that he spent all of his time in New Hampshire, only to walk away with around 17% of the vote, a few delegates, and low polling numbers so far in the next state up for grabs. The Huntsman team believes they have a bit of an advantage in Florida, the next battleground after South Carolina, as Mrs. Huntsman hails from the Sunshine State, so we may see his campaign stay in even after a tough outing in South Carolina.
If only one of Santorum, Gingrich or Perry were running, we might see a different result in South Carolina, which has a lot of conservative, evangelical voters. As it is, however, with none of the candidates dropping out after tonight’s primary, it looks likely that Mitt Romney’s march to the nomination will continue next week.